Elon Musk’s $500 billion fortune can be seen as the payout from a series of the world’s most valuable hunches. His early and unwavering bets on electric vehicles, private spaceflight, and artificial intelligence—ideas once considered fringe—have now paid off on a scale that is without historical precedent.
His first major hunch was that electric cars could be better, faster, and more desirable than their gasoline counterparts. This bet, embodied by Tesla, has now grown into a $1.5 trillion company and is the primary source of his wealth. The delivery of nearly half a million of these vehicles last quarter shows just how mainstream his hunch has become.
His next hunch was that private enterprise could revolutionize the hidebound aerospace industry. This led to the creation of SpaceX, a company that has achieved what many thought impossible, including reusable rockets. His 42% stake in this now-dominant player, targeting a $400 billion valuation, is another massive payoff.
His latest hunch is that the race for artificial general intelligence is the most important endeavor of our time, leading to the creation of xAI. With a $75 billion valuation already, the market is signaling its strong belief in this bet as well.
This week’s milestone is the culmination of these world-changing bets. It is a half-trillion-dollar testament to the power of having a clear, contrarian vision of the future and the relentless drive to turn those hunches into reality.